Image via Eastern Michigan Athletics
I’ve asked it before, and I’ll ask it again right now.
That question is usually directed at Eastern Michigan’s football squad, which has never reached the MAC championship game in the 12 previous seasons under Chris Creighton’s supervision.
However, that question is similarly asked by the folks supporting UMass football, too.
When the heck are we ever going to reach a bowl game?
Or, when are we even going to be competitive at this level?
Eastern Michigan goes to UMass on Saturday, and I don’t know if enough people are talking about the game in proper terms. This weekend’s contest won’t ultimately decide the fate of the conference race, and it won’t change the fact that EMU still has six more games to play after it. This is still as big as an early October MAC game can get.
This isn’t anybody’s Super Bowl. This is everybody’s Early MACtober Bowl.
And now it’s time for a pop quiz!
Without any cheating: When was the last time EMU handed a MAC opponent its first loss of the year after starting the year 4-0 or better?
In other words, when’s the last time EMU won an Early MACtober Bowl?
Pencils down.
The answer: 1988, a year after EMU’s California Bowl-winning season. On October 15, after EMU began the year 3-2 and was outscored 75-6 in its previous two games to Arizona and Central Michigan, EMU traveled to Ball State and beat the 5-0 Cardinals by a score of 16-12.
The win, since it already lost to a decent Central team (which finished third in the final MAC standings), didn’t put EMU in the driver’s seat for the league title race (which was won by Western Michigan), though it kept EMU in the running.
Clip via The Kalamazoo Gazette (published Oct. 16, 1988)
That Ball State team went on to lose two more times that season (to WMU and Ohio) and finished tied for third.
The EMU at Ball State game, which was almost 40 years ago now, came in front of 16,000 strong in Muncie, Ind.
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium has an officially listed capacity of 17,000. As of Wednesday evening, there’s only limited seating available in just one section.
Pardon my lack of imagination, but I really never thought I’d see the day when EMU at UMass would be a can’t-miss event.
Pinch me, as they say.
Screenshot via UMass’s ticketing website for the EMU-UMass game.
Eastern Michigan (2-3, 1-0 MAC) vs. Massachusetts (4-0, 1-0 MAC)
Rutgers, if only because it wears a Big Ten patch, is a respectable win on UMass’s schedule. Well, all wins are respectable, especially when all of its wins have come in double-digit fashion, but Eastern Michigan should think of itself as one of the toughest (if not the toughest) teams UMass will have seen to this point.
Sacramento State, even with a MAC patch, is effectively an FCS school, which is to say that three of UMass’ four wins this year have been over FCS-level teams.
No, EMU’s not a better team because it played three harder opponents in its losses, but there’s room to think EMU could’ve been undefeated if it had UMass’ schedule, or UMass maybe could’ve had three losses to San José State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, too, if they could’ve traded schedules.
UMass early schedule might’ve looked and tasted like cupcakes, but nobody’s saying UMass is 4-0 in spite of having a bad-looking football team.
Pop Watson has been a dynamic playmaker, and he’s the early frontrunner to win the league MVP title in my eye. Not only is Amherst’s short king a speed demon with game-breaking ability, but his 74% completion rate is the 10th-best mark in the country.
The defense, even though it allowed Sac State’s offense to get in (or near) the red zone five times last week, has taken great steps forward in stopping the run since last year.
What did Sac State do with those opportunities? The Hornets kicked three field goals (made two), its true freshman running back fumbled the ball, and its quarterback threw into a turnover on downs in the fourth quarter.
EMU’s run defense might’ve ranked last in the nation last year at 232 yards per game allowed (5.5 rush avg., 29 TD), but UMass wasn’t too far behind (221 YPG, 5.0 avg., 30 TD).
This year, both defenses have seen drastic improvements. UMass, statistically, is playing like a top-10 bunch nationally (74.8 YPG, 2.3 avg., 1 TD).
Both defenses are also improved at simply taking the ball away from opposing offenses. UMass has 11 takeaways this year (third-most nationally), while EMU has six (tied for second in MAC).
Maybe it’s an elementary look at the game, but a football game like this doesn’t really need to be complicated, either. The way I’m reading things, this game could simply come down to whichever team does a better job of stopping the run, and whichever defense wins the turnover battle.
UMass’ offense wasn’t great in the second half against Sac State. It punted to end four of its five drives in the second half, and its one scoring drive in the third quarter happened after a muffed punt return that re-set the Minutemen offense on the field with great field position.
EMU’s been hoping for continued success with its ground attack, and the team felt like it took some strides against Michigan State, and last week against Lindenwood, its top three running backs all had rushing averages above 4.0 yards per carry.
UMass has some ability with its backfield, but most of the explosion comes from its quarterback, who can go 20, 30, 100 yards on both designed runs and extended, broken pass plays.
EMU’s offense, currently ranked 127th nationally in offensive drive success rate (by BCFToys), is going to need more from its running back room this week, but it’s also going to need a lot more from its quarterback.
Noah Kim’s stats paint an OK picture of his season so far (61% completion, 6 TD, 3 INT), but he’s left his receivers hanging in plenty of other moments. Every quarterback overthrows his receivers from time to time, but Kim’s obvious accuracy issues have been a regular week-to-week occurrence.
He’s been fine this year, but EMU didn’t bring back a seventh-year college quarterback for him to be just fine.
Creighton’s hinted at from time to time during postgame and week-opening press conferences. Kim’s misfires sometimes lead to turnovers. Sometimes they lead to three-and-out drives. Sometimes his inaccuracies are caught, and sometimes those plays might be good for chunk or explosive gains, but Creighton’s itching to see “monster gains.”
UMass’s defense is one of 34 teams in the country that has more interceptions (6) than touchdowns thrown against it (5). Again, consider the schedule it played, but that’s a lot of reason for that team to feel confident in itself before it faces a quarterback who seems to sometimes let a few mistakes multiply into more problems.
EMU has a defense it can truly rely on this season. It’s a big tackling group, it’s getting quarterbacks to think twice before throwing, and it’s getting pressure and tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
The quarterback play for EMU needs to take immediate, in-season progress if it wants to avoid falling in the big Early MACtober Bowl. If the improvements from Kim aren’t seen on the field Saturday, then when will they be?
